US natural gas prices rise on hot weather forecasts, contract expiry

Chart Industries

29/07/2025 15:04

July 29 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures rose on Tuesday as hot weather forecasts in August are expected to boost air-conditioning demand, prompting more gas use by power generators, while technical buying ahead of the August contract expiration added further support.

Front-month gas futures for August delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 7.3 cents, or 2.4%, to $3.06 per million British thermal units at 09:21 a.m. EDT. The contract hit its lowest level since late April in the previous session. The August contract expires on Tuesday.

"We are seeing some profit-taking by short sellers this morning after several sessions of downward pressure pushed the market into an oversold stance.  There is also some support for cash prices as August ends its run at the top of the board from immediate-term weather which has power sector demands elevated," said Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy.

"Some heat starting to creep onto the 11-15 day outlooks could give the bulls a reason to come out of hiding, but it needs to intensify before it is worthy of a true rally in prices."

     Financial firm LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48, including exports, jumping from 106 bcfd last week to 112 bcfd this week. It also estimated 239 cooling degree days over the next two weeks, up from 232 estimated on Monday. CDDs, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18.3 degrees Celsius).

"A hot summer is likely for North America. Warmth during June-August could be widespread in nature except over the Northeast U.S., with the most intense heat risks focused on the central U.S.," said Isaac Hankes, research specialist at LSEG Data and Analytics.

LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 has risen to 107.5 billion cubic feet per day so far in July, up from a monthly record high of 106.4 bcfd in June.

Meanwhile, oil and gas equipment supplier Baker Hughes BKR.O said on Tuesday it would acquire Chart Industries GTLS.N in a $13.6 billion all-cash deal, including debt, edging out rival suitor Flowserve FLS.N.

Elsewhere, Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning, trading in a narrow range, on strong supply and remarks from U.S. President Trump suggesting a shortened deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine. NG/EU

Week ended Jul 25 Forecast
Week ended Jul 18 Actual
Year ago Jul 25
Five-year average
Jul 25
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):
+42
+23
+18
+24
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):
3,117
3,075
3,246
2,928
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average
+6.5%
+5.9%
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)
Current Day
Prior Day
This Month Last Year
Prior Year Average 2024
Five-Year Average (2019-2023)
Henry Hub NGc1
3.06
3.10
2.21
2.41
3.52
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1
10.91
11.11
10.32
10.95
15.47
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1
-
11.93
12.32
11.89
15.23
LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days
Two-Week Total Forecast
Current Day
Prior Day
Prior Year
10-Year Norm
30-Year Norm
U.S. GFS HDDs
2
2
5
2
3
U.S. GFS CDDs
239
232
205
181
173
U.S. GFS TDDs
241
234
210
183
176
LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts
Prior Week
Current Week
Next Week
This Week Last Year
Five-Year (2020-2024)Average For Month
U.S. Supply (bcfd)
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production
108
108
108
97.8
U.S. Imports from Canada
8.1
8
8
7.8
U.S. LNG Imports
0.0
0
0
0.1
Total U.S. Supply
116.1
116
116
105.7
U.S. Demand (bcfd)
U.S. Exports to Canada
2.1
2
2
2.3
U.S. Exports to Mexico
6.8
7
7
6.4
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas
15.2
15
16
10.0
U.S. Commercial
4.4
4
4
4.7
U.S. Residential
3.6
4
4
3.5
U.S. Power Plant
43.9
50
46
48.1
U.S. Industrial
22.3
22
22
21.7
U.S. Plant Fuel
5.3
5
5
5.4
U.S. Pipe Distribution
2.2
2
2
3.3
U.S. Vehicle Fuel
0.1
0
0
0.2
Total U.S. Consumption
81.8
89
83
86.9
Total U.S. Demand
105.9
112
108
99.2
N/A is Not Available
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30)
2025 Current Day
% of Normal Forecast
2025
Prior Day % of Normal Forecast
2024
% of Normal Actual
2023
% of Normal Actual
2022
% of Normal Actual
Apr-Sep
77
77
74
83
107
Jan-Jul
78
78
76
77
102
Oct-Sep
80
80
77
76
103
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA
Week ended Aug 1
Week ended Jul 25
2024
2023
2022
Wind
9
10
11
10
11
Solar
7
7
5
4
3
Hydro
4
5
6
6
6
Other
1
1
1
2
2
Petroleum
0
0
0
0
0
Natural Gas
43
41
42
41
38
Coal
19
19
16
17
21
Nuclear
17
17
19
19
19
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL
3.11
3.10
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL
2.89
2.80
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL
3.24
3.16
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL
2.56
2.49
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL
2.95
2.83
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL
6.25
3.34
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL
3.44
3.29
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL
1.26
1.11
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL
0.22
0.40
ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)
Hub
Current Day
Prior Day
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX
171.03
171.03
PJM West E-PJWHDAP-IDX
203.11
144.01
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX
74.64
57.66
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX
52.38
49.50
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX
36.25
32.96


 (Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Paul Simao and Andrea Ricci)

 ((Ashitha.Shivaprasad@thomsonreuters.com;))